Peer Reviewed

1

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

4-5-2014

Keywords

Stroke, Transient ischaemic attack, Risk prediction, ABCD2 rule, Bulgaria

Funder/Sponsor

Noel Hickey Research Bursary. Health Research Board.

Comments

The original article is available at www.biomedcentral.com

Abstract

Background

The ABCD2 clinical prediction rule is a seven point summation of clinical factors independently predictive of stroke risk. The purpose of this cohort study is to validate the ABCD2 rule in a Bulgarian hospital up to three years after TIA.

Methods

All consecutive admissions to an emergency department with symptoms of a first TIA were included. Baseline data and clinical examinations including the ABCD2 scores were documented by neurologists. Discrimination and calibration performance was examined using ABCD2 cut-off scores of ≥3, ≥4 and ≥5 points, consistent with the international guidelines. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to examine calibration between the observed and expected outcomes as predicted by ABCD2 score within the logistic regression analysis.

Results

Eighty-nine patients were enrolled to the study with a mean age of 63 years (+/- 12 years). Fifty-nine percent (n = 53) of the study population was male. Seven strokes (7 · 8%) occurred within the first year and six further strokes within the three-year follow-up period. There was no incident of stroke within the first 90 days after TIA. The rule demonstrated good predictive (OR = 1 · 58, 95% CI 1 · 09-2 · 29) and discriminative performance (AUCROC = 0 · 72, 95% CI 0 · 58-0 · 86), as well as a moderate calibration performance at three years.

Conclusion

This validation of the ABCD2 rule in a Bulgarian hospital demonstrates that the rule has good predictive and discriminative performance at three years. The ABCD2 is quick to administer and may serve as a useful tool to assist clinicians in the long-term management of individuals with TIA.

Disciplines

Medicine and Health Sciences

Citation

Galvin R, Atanassova PA, Motterlini N, Fahey T, Dimitrov BD. Long-term risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack: a hospital-based validation of the ABCD2 rule. BMC Research Notes 2014, 7:281.

PubMed ID

24886654

DOI Link

10.1186/1756-0500-7-281

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 License.

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